24/10/2019 by Ragnar Nystøyl
All-time-high global supply of Atlantic salmon
In September, the combined sales volume of all salmon producing nations reached 240.000 tonnes WFE, thus beating the previous record from October last year by 7.000 tonnes
In September, we closed our stock audit for salmon & trout in Norway and found drivers for stronger harvest volumes. Indeed, supply-growth from Norway was a major contributor to the quite notable price pressure and harvest need that was observed in Europe during September. As more and more data and input became available and completed the rest of the picture, it is also confirmed that a far higher relative growth in harvest from the residual European production (primarily Scotland, Faroe Islands, Ireland and Iceland) have also had a major impact on the harvest pressure and the consequently lower prices in Europe.
Harvest growth in Norway was +11 % in Q3, (of which September alone at +22%). The corresponding growth in Q3 for the rest of Europe was +35%, more evenly spread out during the quarter, although we estimate September alone with more than 40 % growth from last year!
AS a result, September 2019 stand out as the new all-time-high for the global monthly supply level of Atlantic salmon. With 240.000 tonnes WFE in combined sales volume from all salmon producing nations, the previous record from October last year (233.000 tonnes WFE) is thus overtaken.
We cannot conclude with a similar record for monthly consumption, as it is more than likely that some of this strong supply-growth in September has been destined for frozen inventory, idle for processing at a later stage.
Moreover, preliminary estimates for European feed sales during September have also been strong. While weekly reports have indicated a growth of 6-7 % for Norway, recent monthly figures show a double-digit growth. The rest of European producing countries shows a more moderate growth, bringing total feed sales growth in Europe up at an estimated 9 % in September. The corresponding growth-rate in Americas, was down 2 %.
While all signs indicate a lower growth-rate, for supply in the last quarter the major tendencies – at least in the European scenery - keep pushing our expectations for the global 2020-harvest growth slowly upwards, currently having reached the +4% mark.
Keep up with the development in our Monthly salmon report