01/11/2019 by Jan Erik Øksenvåg
Chilean protests and revised production model
As the protests in Chile continues, both short-term and long-term effects on supply and price development are hard to predict. To add to the confusion, this week we made some major changes in our production simulation models for Chile on Atlantic salmon.
Protests in Chile continue and according to industry reports, distribution of fresh salmon products to both the US market and Brazil are notably affected. The overall impacts of the protests for the Chilean salmon industry is still unclear as companies seem to be impacted differently and their strategy on tackling the challenges vary.
According to market reports, suppliers of fresh fillets to the US market are currently focusing on finding ways to deliver according to contract commitments. As a result, spot prices (for both fresh fillets and fresh whole salmon) is on the rise.
This week we made some major changes in our production simulation model for Chile on Atlantic salmon. A part of our basis for modelling and surveilling the production in Chile are selected production data and productivity data from Aquabench. A recent update and expansion of coverage and totals in their database leads to the conclusion that the previously estimated coverage has been underestimated.
In short, the revision of our production model leads to a reduction in harvest volumes (and estimates) of Atlantic salmon in 2018, 2019 and 2020 of 17.000, 19.000 and 22.000 tonnes respectively. Additionally, smolt release in 2019 (Jan-Aug) is reduced by approximately 5,5 million.
These changes implicitly affect the loss-rate, primarily for generations 17G and 18G, which are marginally higher than previously estimated. Also, the feed conversion rates (both biological and economical) are higher than previously estimated for the same generations as well as for S1 19G.
Our publications covering Chile will be updated according to the revised production model in the next edition.